Trump World Seems Worried

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Donald Trump is running neck and neck with Joe Biden, and might even be taking the lead in the 2024 race. Yet Republicans and their media ecosystem seem to be in a panic about their candidate.

First, here are three new stories from The Atlantic:

• Anthony Fauci: The first three months
• The Biden campaign’s losing battle
• Chlamydia is coming for koalas.

The Path of Deception

As the presidential candidates head into their first debate next week, Trump’s people should be happy. Their candidate, of course, is dragging around a sled loaded with politically toxic baggage: He’s a convicted felon; he was found liable for sexual abuse; he tried to incite an insurrection; his speeches include gibberish about sharks and a movie cannibal. He multiplies his own troubles at every turn, even undermining surrogates who keep trying to explain away his darker or weirder statements. And yet, against every rule of political physics, Trump is running even or perhaps pulling ahead of a reasonably successful incumbent.

But if Trump is doing so well, why is his campaign and its support system in right-wing media resorting to easily disproved lies? Joe Biden’s age has been a brutal factor in keeping his poll numbers low. The president is weaker of voice and stiffer of gait than he was even a few years ago, and more likely now to mangle a word or phrase. The GOP has its pick of examples to use to keep making that case, yet the party resorts to cheap tricks such as deceptive video editing.

Last week, for example, Biden was at the G7 meeting in Italy. The Republican National Committee released a video of him apparently wandering off from a group at a skydiving exhibition, like a confused grandpa looking for the van back to the senior-citizens home. The New York Post dutifully ran with the video. It looked bad—but as presented, it was a lie. Biden was turning to talk to a paratrooper just a few yards to his left.

The RNC video and the Post’s obedient amplification weren’t based on spin or interpretation. Someone had to have looked at that video of Biden in Europe and made the conscious decision to create a lie. Let’s just cut the frame right there so that Biden looks like he wandered off. By the time anyone figures it out, it won’t matter.

The video made the rounds, and maybe that’s all the RNC wanted. A lie, as the saying goes, gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on. And, as I often point out, I am a grown-up who has worked with local and national politicians. I am fully aware that politics ain’t beanbag and dirty tricks are part of the game. But if your candidate is doing well, why take the risk? A party that thinks its candidate is in control doesn’t take the chance of pulling the spotlight away from the opponent, which is exactly what happens when campaign operatives get caught in a lie.

The campaign engaged in a similarly baffling move this past weekend, when Trump went to Detroit. The Trump courtier Kellyanne Conway went on Fox News to congratulate him for speaking to 8,000 people at a Black church. Trump did, in fact, speak at a Black church—but to a crowd of perhaps 100 or so mostly white people in a half-empty space that couldn’t hold 8,000 people even if seats were installed in the rafters and on the roof. (Its pastor gamely said the next day that he was surprised at the number of Black people who actually attended, considering that some had initially laughed at him when he approached them on the street about the event.)

So why not take the win, run the video of Trump with a Black pastor, and leave it at that? Why go for the big lie and then look foolish?

One possibility is that the Trump campaign is worried. Maybe Conway was just gilding the Trump lily, but MAGA world appears to be working overtime to make Trump and Biden seem indistinguishable and thus equivalently awful. Last week, Andrew Ross Sorkin reported on CNBC that top U.S. business leaders were concerned about Trump’s mental fitness after a meeting on June 13 with the former president. Several CEOs, according to Sorkin, said that Trump “was remarkably meandering, could not keep a straight thought,” and “was all over the map.”

Hours after the Trump story dropped, the New York Post ran an article that used almost identical language about Biden meeting with G7 leaders, featuring comments attributed to a “diplomatic insider” and an “attendee from a non-US delegation.”

Deceptively edited videos, nonexistent crowds, and No, your man is more senile than ours counterprogramming is not the sign of a confident campaign. But Trump’s team might also be doing these things because they work.

The Biden video—even if only the arguing over the provenance of the video itself—wrested attention away from yet another disturbing Trump rant about sharks. Conway was ridiculed for her Detroit comments, but the media response to the Trump event was all the campaign could ask for. Instead of publishing a headline like “Trump Speaks to a Small, Mostly White Audience of Loyalists in Black Church as His Campaign Lies About Crowd Size,” the Associated Press rolled out an article titled “Trump Blasts Immigrants for Taking Jobs as He Courts Voters at a Black Church, MAGA Event in Detroit.” CBS went with “Trump Hosts Roundtable at Detroit Church, Says Biden Has Been ‘Worst President for Black People.’”

If nonevents bolstered by outrageous falsehoods generate coverage like this, who could blame the Trump campaign for thinking that lying is merely a small frictional cost of getting great headlines? Trump’s people understand the power of the fast lie and slow correction, and they know, too, that the media are reflexively averse to reporting on one of the major candidates as an unstable felon who is flatly lying to the public. Don’t believe me about that “felon” part? Today, The New York Times ran the headline “Biden Campaign Ad Paints Trump as a Felon.” Britain’s Financial Times likewise wrote: “Joe Biden to Paint Donald Trump as ‘Unhinged’ Felon in $50mn Ad Campaign.”

“Paint”?

Someone at The New York Times must have caught up with this headline, because by midday, the story was retitled “Biden Campaign Ad Calls Attention to Trump’s Felon Status.” But that first draft was indicative of the deep reluctance in some quarters to talk about Trump accurately, as if this were still 2016 and Trump hadn’t yet shown that his flaws were more than mere speculation by his opponents.

The Trump campaign has seized on the essential truth that this election is about images and feelings rather than facts or policies. It is working to squeeze every vote it can out of its most extreme supporters by providing them with the high-octane Trumpiness they crave. But the campaign is also resorting to sometimes-desperate ploys in order to cover both candidates in a carefully formulated smog, hoping to obscure the differences between an old man who occasionally stumbles over his words and a nearly-as-old criminal who regularly wanders out of the gates of Fort Reality to go on a walkabout in the wilds of his unstable mind.

In the end, the Trump campaign has chosen the path of deception both because the weaknesses of its candidate demand it and because it’s a more reliable path to better media coverage and to winning over credulous and inattentive voters. Why bother telling the truth if lying works so well?

Related:

• The motivated ignorance of Trump supporters
• Let’s talk about Trump’s gibberish.

Today’s News

1. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dissolved his war cabinet yesterday after two members resigned last week over disputes about the future of the war in Gaza.
2. Maryland became the first state to issue mass pardons for low-level marijuana-paraphernalia-related convictions, involving more than 18,000 convictions.
3. George Norcross, an influential Democratic political figure, was indicted on charges in New Jersey that include racketeering conspiracy, misconduct, and other financial crimes. Norcross has denied the accusations.

Dispatches

• The Wonder Reader: Being on a plane is never likely to feel great, Isabel Fattal writes. Can flying ever be comfortable?

Explore all of our newsletters here.

Evening Read

It’s Time to Stop Inviting Plus-Ones to Weddings

By Faith Hill

In the world of American wedding etiquette, plus-ones are straightforward, officially speaking. According to Lizzie Post, the great-great-granddaughter of the manners icon Emily Post and caretaker of her dynasty at the Emily Post Institute, the rules go like this: Granting a plus-one to single guests, especially those who are traveling or who don’t know many other attendees, is nice—but not required. Inviting both members of a “serious” relationship, meanwhile, is absolutely essential. To split a couple up (even if you don’t know your friend’s partner at all, even if the partner is a jerk) would be “the height of rudeness,” Post told me. Alrighty then, a definitive answer.

Putting the theory into practice, though, can get a lot more complicated.

Read the full article.

More From The Atlantic

• Infowars will live on.
• The cause that turned idealists into authoritarian zealots
• The humbling of Narendra Modi

Culture Break

Watch (or skip). Season 2 of House of the Dragon (out now on Max) comes close to being great, Shirley Li writes. It’s bolder and nastier—and harder to watch.

Read. These six books will teach you more about the art of deception.

Play our daily crossword.

P.S.

Many of you know how much I love vintage television programs. Today, I thought I’d point you toward a show that is now almost old enough to count as vintage: House (you’ll sometimes see it as House, M.D.), whose first episode aired almost 20 years ago.

Part of what I find fascinating about watching House now is noting how much American television changed from the 1980s to the 2000s so that it could make room for protagonists who were just awful people. Perhaps this was the influence of The Sopranos, which dared us to empathize with a Mafia killer, but it wasn’t so long ago that Dabney Coleman (whose recent death prompted me to think about this more) couldn’t help his gem of a sitcom, Buffalo Bill, survive on network TV. Coleman’s character, a narcissistic jerk stuck in a small TV station in Buffalo, New York, was an irredeemable son of a bitch—and hilarious. Coleman was wonderful, but Americans weren’t ready for a weekly visit with that kind of guy, and the series lasted only about one year. (Then–NBC Entertainment President Brandon Tartikoff would later admit that his decision to cancel the show was “a crime.”)

Hugh Laurie’s Dr. Gregory House is also a narcissistic jerk, stuck in a small hospital in New Jersey. He also has a huge mean streak. (Just ask Detective Michael Tritter.) House is a Vicodin-addicted genius with a painful limp who shows his team how much he cares for them by calling them morons and idiots. In each episode, House solves a medical mystery—the show’s creator, David Shore, based him on Sherlock Holmes—while making it clear that he doesn’t believe in God, humanity, goodness, or anything except being right. (The series is also a reminder that comedic actors such as Laurie can sometimes play a dark character better than their colleagues who usually do drama.)

I liked House the first time around. I liked him even more and even identified with him a bit the second time … But on reflection, maybe that’s not saying anything too nice about me.

— Tom

Stephanie Bai contributed to this newsletter.

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