Putin is rehashing his nuclear threats — but this time, he may be threatening nuclear catastrophe in an effort to sway American voters

• Vladimir Putin made an explicit nuclear threat against the West this week.
• But experts remain skeptical of Putin's nuclear saber-rattling after three years of similar threats. 
• One expert suggested Putin is drumming up fear among American voters to cut US support for Ukraine. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a new nuclear threat this week, threatening the West over its support for Ukraine in his most explicit intimidation tactic yet.

But a regional expert says Putin's recent bout of nuclear saber-rattling is less a promise of mutually assured destruction and more an attempt to mobilize the American public against ongoing assistance for Ukraine.

In his annual state-of-the-nation speech on Thursday, Putin alluded to recent comments by French President Emmanuel Macron, who said earlier this week that he could not rule out NATO troops being sent to Ukraine to help fight Russia. (Though Germany and Poland quickly countered that suggestion.)

Putin warned that Western nations "must realize we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory."

"All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don't they get that?" Putin said, according to Reuters.

The Russian president made several similar threats after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Most experts at the time, however, cast doubt on the likelihood that Putin would actually deploy a nuclear weapon, given the perilous global position in which doing so would leave Russia.

Two years later, experts still think the chance of nuclear warfare is low.

"Putin's shtick is, at least, predictable at this point," Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told Business Insider. "He's repeating his same, tired nuclear threats."

Putin is working to project an image of himself as a stalwart president whose leadership is the only thing protecting Russia from catastrophe with the West, Miles said, especially ahead of the country's presidential election later this month — a race Putin is all but sure to win.

But there may be more than one election on Putin's mind as he rails off his nuclear threats.

Putin may be speaking directly to Americans

"He is aiming these remarks at Western publics and Western civilian political leadership," said Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor of national security and political science at the University of New Haven who previously taught planning at the US Army's School of Advanced Military Studies.

"He's trying to make sure that Ukraine does not get significant aid from the US," Schmidt added, chalking Putin's most recent nuclear threats up to an attempt to sway American voters against supporting politicians and policies that would result in further US funding for Ukraine.

Since the war began, the Biden administration has directed nearly $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, including military and financial support, according to The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute.

But further funding for Ukraine has been stalled in Congress as House GOP support for US aid wanes. Just this week, Congress narrowly averted a government shutdown but still made no progress on passing a $95 billion package with emergency funds for Ukraine, Israel, and other foreign allies.

"American politicians are already responding to this war in a way that helps Russia," Schmidt said. "Putin is trying to create the conditions for that to continue happening."

While military professionals and international relations experts may be rightfully skeptical of Putin's threats, the average American voter likely doesn't understand the nuances of nuclear politics, Schmidt said.

When a civilian hears that Putin threatened nuclear warfare as a result of American involvement in Ukraine, that civilian may respond by voicing their opposition to ongoing assistance at the ballot — at least, that's what Putin is hoping for, Schmidt said.

Putin's information warfare comes at a critical time for Ukraine, as Russia has racked up a series of military wins in recent weeks. Last week, Zelenskyy pleaded with Western allies for artillery and air defenses, saying Ukraine's victory depends on continued support.

But Putin may ultimately have the more resonant message when it comes to American voters, Schmidt said.

"It's far more complicated to explain why Ukraine is important to US voters than it is for Putin to threaten nuclear war," he told BI.