Did Republicans Just Hand Trump 2.0 His First Defeat?

Donald Trump has won the public embrace of virtually every Republican currently in federal elected office. In private, however, at least one bastion of mild GOP resistance to Trump’s takeover remains: the Senate Republican conference.

GOP senators demonstrated that resistance today by electing as majority leader Senator John Thune of South Dakota and decisively rejecting the candidate whom Trump’s allies preferred for the job, Senator Rick Scott of Florida. Thune, a 63-year-old in his fourth term, most recently served as the top lieutenant to Senator Mitch McConnell, the longtime Republican leader whose relationship with Trump has been famously difficult. Like McConnell, Thune criticized Trump’s role in fomenting the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, calling the former president’s actions “inexcusable.” He has since tried to repair the relationship in the hope that Trump would not try to thwart his bid to replace McConnell.

Now Thune’s partnership with Trump will determine how many of the president-elect’s nominees will win confirmation and how much of his legislative agenda can pass Congress. Thune will preside over a larger Republican majority—the GOP will have 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47, come January—than the party had during Trump’s first term. But three of those Senate Republicans—Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana—voted to convict and remove Trump from office after January 6.

[Read: Trump gets his second trifecta]

The tests will begin immediately. Will Republicans confirm Trump’s choice of Pete Hegseth, a military veteran and Fox News host with no experience in government leadership, to be defense secretary? Or Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida as attorney general? The possible nominations of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Kash Patel to senior roles could similarly force Thune to decide how much deference he wants to give the new president.

A GOP leader’s distaste for Trump doesn’t always translate to legislative conflict. McConnell was unsparing in his criticism of Trump after January 6; he told his biographer Michael Tackett that Trump was “a sleazeball” and that the assault on the Capitol demonstrated his “complete unfitness for office.” Yet as majority leader, McConnell rarely bucked Trump, blocking few nominees and ensuring the president’s ability to reshape the federal judiciary and the Supreme Court. He voted to acquit Trump of his second impeachment, a decision that helped enable Trump’s political comeback.

Thune is likely to be even more accommodating as Trump prepares to reassume the presidency. “This Republican team is united,” Thune told reporters after defeating Scott and Senator John Cornyn of Texas in the leadership election. “We have a mandate from the American people, a mandate not only to clean up the mess left by the Biden-Harris-Schumer agenda, but also to deliver on President Trump’s priorities.” He signaled support for Trump’s nominees so far—although Gaetz’s selection had yet to be announced—and vowed to overcome Democratic opposition to confirming them.

[Tom Nichols: The loyalists are collecting their rewards in Trump’s Cabinet]

Yet if Thune is no longer a Trump critic, he isn’t a loyalist either. Socially and fiscally conservative, he began his political ascent when most Republicans were still devoted to the legacy of Ronald Reagan. Thune first won his Senate seat in 2004 by defeating the Democratic leader at the time, Tom Daschle, and was seen as a possible presidential contender. But he devoted himself to the Senate instead, and his bid to succeed McConnell was years in the making. During his press conference today, Thune reaffirmed his commitment to maintaining the Senate’s 60-vote threshold for overcoming a legislative filibuster—a McConnell priority that Trump frequently complained about during his first term. He also declined to immediately agree to Trump’s demand that the Senate allow him to install his nominees when Congress is not in session.

Thune’s main (though friendly) rival has long been Cornyn, who preceded Thune as the party’s second-ranking Senate leader. But the Trump wing distrusted both Johns and wanted Rick Scott, who had run the GOP’s campaign committee before unsuccessfully challenging McConnell for party leader after the 2022 midterms. Scott racked up several public endorsements from Trump loyalists in the week since the election. Notably, however, the former president declined to weigh in on the race, perhaps not wanting to spend his political capital on a long shot who was likely to lose.

Had the vote been public, Scott might not have been such a long shot, and a vocal Trump-led pressure campaign could have put him over the top. But senators decide their leaders by secret ballot, and a majority of Republicans took the opportunity to elect, in Thune, the candidate with the fewest ties to the new president. Luckily for Trump, that vote will likely be the last big one they get to take in private for a while.